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Modelling for the health of our next generation

Nearly 170 years ago a British doctor applied geospatial mapping to identify the source of a cholera outbreak in central London.

Nearly 170 years ago a British doctor applied geospatial mapping to identify the source of a cholera outbreak in central London.

Using a street map to plot the location of the homes of the sick, Dr John Snow was able to pinpoint a ‘ground zero’ for the outbreak – a contaminated water pump.

The handle for the pump was removed and the epidemic stopped.

Today, The Kids Research Institute Australia is harnessing immense data sources that enable us to apply the same method to address serious public health concerns in Western Australia and across the world.

Professor Peter Gething, the Kerry M Stokes Chair in Child Health at The Kids and Curtin University, and Dr Ewan Cameron, from the Geospatial Health and Development Team and Curtin University, have been leading this work to understand exactly where public health issues are concentrated to help find the solution to these health challenges.

“In WA, of our 620,000 children and young people, one in ten have asthma, three in ten are considered obese, 2,600 have type 1 diabetes and 20 per cent have a developmental delay when they start school, Professor Gething said.

“We also know suicide is the leading cause of death in children, and in the past decade self-harm hospitalisation of young girls aged 14 years and younger has trebled. For girls aged between 15 and 19 years it has doubled.

Imagine if we can use geospatial mapping to understand exactly where these serious public health issues are concentrated and use research, policy and practice to stem the tide of poor health in the most vulnerable members of our community.

Professor Gething and Dr Cameron’s team have built Virtual WA - a digital replica of the State. Using neighbourhood spatial modelling with data including population characteristics, demographics, connections to public transport, schools, GP clinics, hospitals and workplaces, they have built a comprehensive map of our community.

Dr Cameron said the team was then able to use the information to ask real-world questions: where do children with asthma live and what is the role of air quality? Do areas with high suicide rates have easy access to mental health services? Can kids more easily walk to school and would this help combat rising child obesity?

“The information will help to inform policy and research to address these challenges to the health of our kids,” he said.

Professor Gething said much of the work now being undertaken built on game-changing research developed by the team over the past 18 years that focused on one of the world’s deadliest diseases: malaria.

“We have used geospatial modelling to map the prevalence of malaria in some of the world’s poorest countries, and developed the world’s largest database of malaria prevalence, incidence, mortality and interventions across Africa.

“By building a huge toolbox of new analytical approaches, we’ve been successful in bringing these complex data together and answering the questions that policy makers needed to answer.

“Globally, we are in the midst of a data revolution - with the volume and complexity of data being generated growing exponentially – and data on population health and wellbeing is no exception.

“Viewing these data sets through a geographical lense – and harnessing the power of asking ‘where?’ - we have an unprecedented opportunity to use data and analytics to deliver the insights we need for improved policy and practice - to ensure a bright future for happy, healthy kids.”