Using Hawkes Processes to model imported and local malaria cases in near-elimination settings

Developing new methods for modelling infectious diseases outbreaks is important for monitoring transmission and developing policy. In this paper we propose using semi-mechanistic Hawkes Processes for modelling malaria transmission in near-elimination settings. Hawkes Processes are well founded mathematical methods that enable us to combine the benefits of both statistical and mechanistic models to recreate and forecast disease transmission beyond just malaria outbreak scenarios.

Citation:
Unwin HJT, Routledge I, Flaxman S, Rizoiu MA, ...... Weiss DJ, et al. Using Hawkes Processes to model imported and local malaria cases in near-elimination settings. PLoS Comput Biol. 2021;17(4):e1008830.

Keywords:
Infectious diseases; malaria; Hawkes Processes

Abstract:
Developing new methods for modelling infectious diseases outbreaks is important for monitoring transmission and developing policy. In this paper we propose using semi-mechanistic Hawkes Processes for modelling malaria transmission in near-elimination settings. Hawkes Processes are well founded mathematical methods that enable us to combine the benefits of both statistical and mechanistic models to recreate and forecast disease transmission beyond just malaria outbreak scenarios.