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Modeling COVID-19 disease processes by remote elicitation of causal Bayesian networks from medical experts

COVID-19 is a new multi-organ disease causing considerable worldwide morbidity and mortality. While many recognized pathophysiological mechanisms are involved, their exact causal relationships remain opaque. Better understanding is needed for predicting their progression, targeting therapeutic approaches, and improving patient outcomes. While many mathematical causal models describe COVID-19 epidemiology, none have described its pathophysiology.

Citation:
Mascaro S, Wu Y, Woodberry O, ……. Foley DA, Snelling TL, Nicholson AE, ……. Blyth CC, Lemoh C, Waddington C, et al. Modeling COVID-19 disease processes by remote elicitation of causal Bayesian networks from medical experts. BMC Med Res Methodol. 2023;23(1)

Keywords:
Bayesian network; COVID-19; Causal model; DAG; DBN; Decision support; Experimental design; Expert elicitation; Pathophysiology

Abstract:
COVID-19 is a new multi-organ disease causing considerable worldwide morbidity and mortality. While many recognized pathophysiological mechanisms are involved, their exact causal relationships remain opaque. Better understanding is needed for predicting their progression, targeting therapeutic approaches, and improving patient outcomes. While many mathematical causal models describe COVID-19 epidemiology, none have described its pathophysiology.