Investigators
Prof. Nick Golding (The Kids Research Institute Australia & Curtin University), Dr Freya Shearer (The Kids Research Institute Australia & University of Melbourne), Dr David Duncan (The Kids Research Institute Australia & University of Melbourne)
Partners
Ms Lucinda Harrison, Prof Jennifer Flegg & Prof James McCaw (University of Melbourne), Dr David Price (University of Melbourne & Doherty Institute)
Project description
Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a mosquito-borne virus that is typically only found in south-east Asia. JEV is transmitted between mosquitoes and certain waterbird and livestock species, with occasional transmission to humans. Symptomatic JEV infections in humans can cause serious illness and death. JEV has only very occasionally been detected in the far north of Australia and offshore islands.
In early 2022, after a year of heavy rainfall, an unprecedented outbreak of Japanese encephalitis occurred in south-eastern Australia led Australia’s Chief Medical Officer to declare a Communicable Disease Incident of National Significance. Within a few months scores of humans were infected and six people died, with hundreds more infections detected across a range of domesticated animals and feral pigs.
The dramatic expansion of JEV into southern Australia suggested the disease was being transmitted in a completely new disease ecosystem in Australia. Our team was tasked with developing a geospatial model of JEV transmission risk to highlight areas where health departments could prioritise surveillance for the virus, and where to distribute Australia’s stocks of the JEV vaccine.
We built spatial models to predict where in Australia the habitat might be suitable for the combinations of mosquito and waterbird species that experts thought were most likely to be sustaining transmission. The team also developed new models of where JEV is most likely to be circulating currently, and where it is most likely to be detected if present. This incorporated data on screening of mosquitoes, domestic and feral pigs, and sentinel chicken flocks from all the states and territories of Australia. These models synthesise for health departments our best spatial understanding of where in Australia JEV most poses a risk to humans, enabling them to better respond and protect Australians from this new disease.
External collaborators
- Australian State and Territory Health and Agriculture departments
- Northern Australia Quarantine Strategy
- Simon Firestone (University of Melbourne)
- Stacey Lynch (CSIRO Australian Centre for Disease Preparedness)
Funders
- Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care