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Quantifying the extent to which previous infections and vaccinations confer protection against future infection or disease outcomes is critical to managing the transmission and consequences of infectious diseases. We present a general statistical model for predicting the strength of protection conferred by different immunising exposures (numbers, types, and strains of both vaccines and infections), against multiple outcomes of interest, whilst accounting for immune waning.
Arboviruses transmitted mainly by Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Ae. albopictus, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, and yellow fever virus in urban settings, pose an escalating global threat. Existing risk maps, often hampered by surveillance biases, may underestimate or misrepresent the true distribution of these diseases and do not incorporate epidemiological similarities despite shared vector species.
In the austral summer of 2021-2022, Australia experienced an unprecedented Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) outbreak, with detections over 3000 km south of previous occurrences. Given the limited knowledge of JEV transmission ecology in Australia, we developed geospatial models of transmission risk to support the public health response. We created time-varying habitat suitability models for suspected mosquito vectors and ardeid hosts using month-scaled occurrence and covariate data from 2000-2023.
Fertility rates are key indicators of population health and demographic change, influencing economic development, healthcare planning, and social policies. Understanding subnational variation in fertility rate is important for effective geographical targeting and policy prioritization. This study aimed to identify geographic variation, trends, and determinants of fertility rates in Ethiopia over the past two decades.
Post-tuberculosis (TB) sequelae present a significant challenge in the management of TB survivors, often leading to persistent health issues even after successful treatment. Identifying risk factors associated with post-TB sequelae is important for improving outcomes and quality of life of TB survivors. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to identify risk factors associated with long-term physical sequelae among TB survivors.
o map subnational and local prevalence of drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) across Africa. We assembled a geolocated dataset from 173 sources across 31 African countries, comprising drug susceptibility test results and covariate data from publicly available databases. We used Bayesian model-based geostatistical framework with multivariate Bayesian logistic regression model to estimate DR-TB prevalence at lower administrative levels.
Malaria incidence (MI) has significantly declined in Nepal, and this study aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution and drivers of MI at the ward level. Data for malaria cases were obtained from the National Surveillance System from 2013 to 2021. Data for covariates, including annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and distance to the nearest city, were obtained from publicly available sources. A Bayesian spatial model was used to identify factors associated with the spatial distribution of MI.
Strongyloidiasis, caused by the soil-transmitted helminth Strongyloides stercoralis, remains a neglected public health issue in Australia, particularly among remote Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities. This study aimed to map the spatial distribution of strongyloidiasis and investigate associated socioecological factors to identify high-risk areas and guide targeted interventions in Australia.
Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health challenge in Ethiopia, despite being a preventable disease. TB preventive treatment (TPT) is a critical intervention to prevent the progression from latent TB infection to active disease, particularly among household contacts of TB patients and people living with HIV due to weakened immunity. However, the initiation and completion rates of TPT at subnational and local levels have not been thoroughly investigated. This study aims to map facility-based TPT initiation and completion rates among household contacts of TB across Ethiopia.
Children who live in the outer suburbs of Australia’s four biggest cities are twice as likely to have asthma as those living in inner city areas, according to a new study based on health data captured in the last Australian Census.