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Research

Developing new methods for modelling infectious diseases outbreaks is important for monitoring transmission and developing policy. In this paper we propose using semi-mechanistic Hawkes Processes for modelling malaria transmission in near-elimination settings. Hawkes Processes are well founded mathematical methods that enable us to combine the benefits of both statistical and mechanistic models to recreate and forecast disease transmission beyond just malaria outbreak scenarios.

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To determine the incidence and incidence trends over 2001-2022 of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes (T1D) in Western Australia and assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Amidst the evolving COVID-19 pandemic, understanding the transmission dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is key to providing peace of mind for the community and informing policy-making decisions. While available data suggest that school-aged children are not significant spreaders of SARS-CoV-2, the possibility of transmission in schools remains an ongoing concern, especially among an aging teaching workforce. Even in low-prevalence settings, communities must balance the potential risk of transmission with the need for students' ongoing education.

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We present observations of the Eridanus supergroup obtained with the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) as part of the pre-pilot survey for the Widefield ASKAP L-band Legacy All-sky Blind surveY (WALLABY).

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The Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) aims to disseminate free, accurate and up-to-date geographical information on malaria and associated topics. Our mission is to generate new and innovative methods to map malaria, to produce a comprehensive range of maps and estimates that will support effective planning of malaria

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Adam Dan Francesca Susan Saddler Weiss Sanna Rumisha PhD PhD Dr PhD (Biostatistics) Research Officer Honorary Research Fellow Research Officer

Research

Climatic conditions are a key determinant of malaria transmission intensity, through their impacts on both the parasite and its mosquito vectors. Mathematical models relating climatic conditions to malaria transmission can be used to develop spatial maps of climatic suitability for malaria. These maps underpin efforts to quantify the distribution and burden of malaria in humans, enabling improved monitoring and control.

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To effectively inform infectious disease control strategies, accurate knowledge of the pathogen's transmission dynamics is required. Since the timings of infections are rarely known, estimates of the infection incidence, which is crucial for understanding the transmission dynamics, often rely on measurements of other quantities amenable to surveillance.

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Malaria imposes a significant global health burden and remains a major cause of child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. In many countries, malaria transmission varies seasonally. The use of seasonally-deployed interventions is expanding, and the effectiveness of these control measures hinges on quantitative and geographically-specific characterisations of malaria seasonality.

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Current malaria elimination targets must withstand a colossal challenge-resistance to the current gold standard antimalarial drug, namely artemisinin derivatives. If artemisinin resistance significantly expands to Africa or India, cases and malaria-related deaths are set to increase substantially.